Trump’s Hesitation Over China Tariffs and Their Impact on Apple
Former President Trump’s proposed tariffs on China have yet to be implemented, but he continues to assert that American consumers won’t bear the costs. However, tariffs are not a tax on other countries—they directly lead to higher prices for American buyers. While Trump has announced new tariffs, these have been delayed until February 1, 2025, and will target Mexico and Canada instead of China for now.
Tariffs on Mexico and Canada
Starting in 2025, Mexico and Canada could face tariffs of up to 25%, though specific figures remain unconfirmed. Trump had previously promised a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, along with a 10% duty on Chinese goods, during his campaign. However, these tariffs have not materialized, and instead, he continues to delay action against China.
Additionally, Trump has threatened tariffs on the BRICS nations, including China, and hinted at increasing import duties if Beijing prevents the sale of TikTok to a U.S. firm. Despite these threats, sources suggest Trump is open to negotiating with Chinese President Xi Jinping, though his unpredictable decision-making could still lead to sudden tariff introductions.
Impact on Apple and Its Prices
Apple would be heavily affected by any tariffs on China, as much of its manufacturing occurs there. While the company has previously secured exemptions under Trump, these were inconsistent. Over the years, Apple has reduced its reliance on China by shifting production to other countries like India. According to Apple CEO Tim Cook, this move is less about cost and more about a skills shortage in the U.S.
While Trump claims tariffs will incentivize companies to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., the more likely scenario is firms relocating production to other countries with established manufacturing bases. Even if tariffs were expanded to those countries, it would likely remain cheaper than paying U.S. wages.
The Consumer Impact
A October 2024 report from the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) examined the potential fallout of Trump’s tariffs. Their findings suggest companies will not relocate to the U.S. but may face significant “unintended consequences,” including:
- A potential U.S. credit rating downgrade
- Increased trade restrictions from other countries
- Damage to the U.S.’s reputation abroad
The report also estimated steep price increases for consumer electronics. For example, laptops and tablets could see a 46% price hike, while desktop computers might rise by 6.2%. Although Apple, as a multi-trillion-dollar company, could theoretically absorb these costs, it’s unlikely. Historically, companies pass tariff-related costs directly to consumers.
Conclusion
Trump recently declared that tariffs will “make us rich as hell,” but the reality is that higher prices will burden American consumers, with the revenue going to the government. Until tariffs are finalized and implemented, the full impact remains uncertain, but it’s clear they will hit both businesses and consumers hard.
