Analyst doubts success of new model

An analyst report shows that the iPhone 16 may not experience a sales boom (“super cycle”) after all – contrary to what was previously reported. Initially, it was assumed that the many new features would motivate buyers.

Everything depends on Apple intelligence features

But now an analyst is taking the wind out of these forecasts’ sails. Despite earlier speculation that demand for the iPhone 16 could increase sharply due to new Apple intelligence features, current orders from suppliers do not indicate this. The well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo now reports that orders for the iPhone 16, at 87 million units for the second half of 2024, will even lag behind the 91 million units of the iPhone 15 in the same period in 2023. This contradicts expectations that the iPhone 16 would trigger a sales boom thanks to the new Apple Intelligence feature.

The report highlights that many of the new Apple Intelligence features will not be available until 2025 and are currently only running in beta versions on the iPhone 15 Pro models. In addition, no launch date has yet been announced for some regions, which will deter users – including in Germany – from making a purchase. Therefore, a significant increase in demand in the fall is unlikely. Although the entire iPhone 16 range is expected to support Apple Intelligence, Apple itself does not seem to be expecting a “super cycle”, which is confirmed by the consistent orders from suppliers.

These findings suggest that Apple may be planning more cautiously and preparing for continuous but not explosive demand for the new model. Analysts and investors had hoped that the introduction of new, AI-powered features would make the iPhone 16 a best-seller, but the current data shows a different picture with more moderate orders from contract manufacturers.

This means that Apple continues to rely on stability and incremental improvements rather than hoping for big jumps in sales. In summary, the report shows that the expectation of a supercycle for the iPhone 16 is not supported by current orders and market analysis. This could dampen investor expectations and indicate that future growth impetus must come from other innovations and products.

What is Apple Intelligence? Apple Intelligence is an innovative technology that uses artificial intelligence (AI) to make the iPhone smarter. It includes advanced features such as personalized recommendations, better voice control, and improved image processing. These AI-based features are designed to optimize the user experience by making everyday tasks easier and more efficient. Why are we not launching Apple Intelligence in Europe at first? Apple Intelligence is not allowed to launch in Europe at first because stricter data protection laws such as the GDPR apply here.

These regulations require that all data collected is fully protected and user privacy is guaranteed. Apple must ensure that the new AI features meet these high standards before they can be launched in Europe. Adapting to these legal requirements requires additional time and resources, which is why Apple is initially limiting the launch to the USA. The company is working with the EU Commission on a solution. And now it’s your turn: Will the launch of the iPhone 16 with different functions worldwide spoil Apple’s business? What about you – do you want to buy a new iPhone in the fall? Write your answers in the comments and discuss with us!