OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Dismisses AGI Deployment Rumors as “Twitter Hype”

Over the past few months, speculation about the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been swirling, fueled by statements and rumors from industry leaders. Top AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic are rumored to be nearing the AGI benchmark—a milestone where AI systems achieve human-like general intelligence. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei have both shared timelines suggesting AGI might be closer than we think, but the reality remains unclear.
Conflicting Timelines for AGI
Sam Altman recently weighed in, suggesting AGI could emerge within the next five years, a shorter timeline than many experts anticipated. However, he downplayed the societal impact of reaching this milestone, suggesting it might pass with little fanfare. On the other hand, Dario Amodei has projected AGI might arrive as early as 2026 or 2027, using projections based on the rapid progression of advanced AI models.
Despite these timelines, debates persist. Some reports hint that AI development may be slowing due to a lack of high-quality training data, creating challenges for advancing current systems. Still, Altman’s recent remarks indicate that OpenAI has a roadmap for achieving AGI, even as he pushes back against the mounting speculation.
Altman Addresses “Twitter Hype”
Altman recently took to X (formerly Twitter) to address the AGI rumors, writing:
“twitter hype is out of control again. we are not gonna deploy AGI next month, nor have we built it. we have some very cool stuff for you but pls chill and cut your expectations 100x.”
— Sam Altman on X, January 20, 2025
This cryptic post suggests that AGI won’t be arriving imminently. Altman’s mention of “cut your expectations 100x” appears to be a direct response to the heightened hype surrounding OpenAI’s progress. Users on X were quick to respond, pointing out a previous message from Altman earlier in the year, where he remarked:
“near the singularity; unclear which side.”
While Altman remains cryptic, his consistent messaging indicates that AGI isn’t just around the corner, contrary to what many on social media believe.
What We Know About AGI So Far
Though AGI might seem closer than ever, the reality is more complex. During OpenAI’s 12 Days of Shipmas campaign, the company released its O1 reasoning model to broad availability. This sparked internal and external debates, with one OpenAI employee claiming, “In my opinion, we have already achieved AGI, and it’s even clearer with O1.”
The employee elaborated:
“We have not achieved ‘better than any human at any task,’ but what we have is ‘better than most humans at most tasks.’ Some say LLMs only know how to follow a recipe. Firstly, no one can really explain what a trillion-parameter deep neural net can learn. But even if you believe that, the whole scientific method can be summarized as a recipe: observe, hypothesize, and verify.”
This perspective suggests that AGI could mean something different than originally expected. While some define AGI as surpassing human intelligence across all tasks, others believe it simply means matching human performance in most areas.
The Financial Benchmark for AGI
Interestingly, a recent report shed light on OpenAI’s internal definition of AGI. According to its deal with Microsoft, OpenAI will consider the AGI benchmark met when it develops AI capable of generating $100 billion in profit.
Altman himself believes this goal is achievable with current hardware, suggesting the company already knows how to build it. This revelation indicates a shift in focus toward superintelligence—systems that go beyond AGI.
The Resource Challenge
Despite these ambitious goals, building AGI and superintelligence requires enormous resources. Altman noted in a podcast that achieving his vision would require $7 trillion to build the necessary semiconductor plants and data centers:
“It would take $7 trillion and many years to build 36 semiconductor plants and additional data centers.”
Popular AI safety researcher Roman Yampolskiy also weighed in, claiming that anyone can build AGI given enough funding:
“Anyone can build AGI as long as you have enough money to buy enough compute.”
The Road Ahead
While AGI remains a highly anticipated milestone, it’s clear that the journey is more complex than many realize. From resource demands to differing definitions of AGI, the road ahead is filled with challenges and opportunities.
For now, Altman’s message is clear—don’t believe the hype. AGI isn’t arriving next month, but OpenAI continues to work toward its ambitious goals, one step at a time.
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